Examining the Predictive Validity of the Public Safety Assessment

Brian J. Brittain; Leah Georges; Jim Martin

doi:10.1177/00938548211005836

Examining the Predictive Validity of the Public Safety Assessment

Brian J. Brittain, Leah Georges, Jim Martin

Interdisciplinary Studies

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA), an actuarial pretrial assessment instrument, administered to 15,931 individuals in Volusia County, Florida, between 2016 and 2017. A series of logistic regression models analyzed the influence of the PSA’s risk scores for Failure to Appear (FTA) and New Criminal Activity (NCA), as well as gender, race, and the length of time spent in pretrial custody on incidents of failure to appear and new pretrial arrest. The findings suggest that while both the FTA and NCA scales predicted pretrial failure fairly well, the variation explained by the models suggest that there is much that we do not understand about predicting pretrial failure to appear and new pretrial arrest, indicating the need for further research and refinement of pretrial assessment instruments.

Original language	English (US)
Journal	Criminal Justice and Behavior
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548211005836
State	Accepted/In press - 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Pathology and Forensic Medicine
Psychology(all)
Law

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title = "Examining the Predictive Validity of the Public Safety Assessment",

abstract = "The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA), an actuarial pretrial assessment instrument, administered to 15,931 individuals in Volusia County, Florida, between 2016 and 2017. A series of logistic regression models analyzed the influence of the PSA{\textquoteright}s risk scores for Failure to Appear (FTA) and New Criminal Activity (NCA), as well as gender, race, and the length of time spent in pretrial custody on incidents of failure to appear and new pretrial arrest. The findings suggest that while both the FTA and NCA scales predicted pretrial failure fairly well, the variation explained by the models suggest that there is much that we do not understand about predicting pretrial failure to appear and new pretrial arrest, indicating the need for further research and refinement of pretrial assessment instruments.",

author = "Brittain, {Brian J.} and Leah Georges and Jim Martin",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology.",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1177/00938548211005836",

language = "English (US)",

journal = "Criminal Justice and Behavior",

issn = "0093-8548",

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T1 - Examining the Predictive Validity of the Public Safety Assessment

AU - Brittain, Brian J.

AU - Georges, Leah

AU - Martin, Jim

PY - 2021

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AB - The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA), an actuarial pretrial assessment instrument, administered to 15,931 individuals in Volusia County, Florida, between 2016 and 2017. A series of logistic regression models analyzed the influence of the PSA’s risk scores for Failure to Appear (FTA) and New Criminal Activity (NCA), as well as gender, race, and the length of time spent in pretrial custody on incidents of failure to appear and new pretrial arrest. The findings suggest that while both the FTA and NCA scales predicted pretrial failure fairly well, the variation explained by the models suggest that there is much that we do not understand about predicting pretrial failure to appear and new pretrial arrest, indicating the need for further research and refinement of pretrial assessment instruments.

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Examining the Predictive Validity of the Public Safety Assessment

Abstract

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