Predicting Success in a Large Sample of Federal Pretrial Offenders: The Influence of Ethnicity

The present study analyzed a host of risk variables related to successful completion of a federal pretrial release program within a large and demographically diverse sample of pretrial defendants. Significant differences were found between variables predicting overall success of pretrial release, including a history of failures to appear and escape behavior. Logistic regressions revealed differences among certain ethnic groups for predicting successful outcome, with Whites significantly more likely than Blacks to succeed. Differences in contributing variables were also found between ethnic groups. Implications for future studies of general risk assessment across ethnic groups are discussed.