Predicting the trajectory of the evolving international cyber regime: Simulating the growth of a social network

Todd C. Lehmann, James A. Rolfsen, Terry D. Clark

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Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model of regime growth. States and the relations comprising a regime are conceptualized as social networks. Regime growth is understood as the addition of ties between states as they agree to work with one another. These ties are added as a result of the interaction between state behavior and the structure of their relations. We apply the model to the emerging cyber security regime. Based on reasonable assumptions of the nature of the current international system, the model predicts a bi-polar structure pitting two distinct blocs led by the two states with the greatest capacity to conduct cyber conflict. However, if states either place increasing emphasis on the benefits of trade or if the more materially powerful seek greater cooperation among themselves, linkages will develop across the two blocs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)72-84
Number of pages13
JournalSocial Networks
Volume41
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 1 2015

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Social Sciences(all)
  • Anthropology
  • Psychology(all)

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