Predictive performance of bayesian and nonlinear least-squares regression programs for lidocaine

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Abstract

The predictive performance of two computer programs for lidocaine dosing were evaluated. Two-compartment Bayesian and nonlinear least-squares regression programs were used in two groups of patients (15 acute arrhythmia patients and 14 chronic arrhythmia patients). Lidocaine was given as a 1.5 mg/kg bolus and a 2.8 mg/min infusion for 48 h. A second bolus (0.5 mg/kg) was given 10 min after the first bolus over 2 min. Serum samples of the patients receiving lidocaine were drawn at 2, 15, 30 min and 1, 2, and 4 h and were used in forecasting the serum concentrations at 6, 8, 12, and 48 h. Predictive performance was assessed by mean error and mean-squared error. The results (mean ± 95% confidence intervals) demonstrated the Bayesian program predicted a significant (p <0.05) difference at 12 h between the two arrhythmia groups (acute 0.52 [-0.95; -0.09] and chronic 0.28 [0.12; 0.44]). The results also demonstrated the Bayesian method was significantly more precise compared to the nonlinear least-squares regression program at 8, 12, and 48 h for the acute group. While caution is warranted, this study demonstrated that the predictive performance by a two-compartment Bayesian model is more accurate in predicting future lidocaine serum concentrations than that by nonlinear least-squares regression.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)286-291
Number of pages6
JournalTherapeutic Drug Monitoring
Volume14
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 1992

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Pharmacology (medical)
  • Pharmacology
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Biochemistry
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Toxicology

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