@article{b96eeab5eb484fd2b1d4933df00f761e,
title = "State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network",
abstract = "Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in 50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo (tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds (the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across a diverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.",
author = "Zinnert, {Julie C.} and Nippert, {Jesse B.} and Rudgers, {Jennifer A.} and Pennings, {Steven C.} and Grizelle Gonz{\'a}lez and Merryl Alber and Baer, {Sara G.} and Blair, {John M.} and Adrian Burd and Collins, {Scott L.} and Christopher Craft and {Di Iorio}, Daniela and Dodds, {Walter K.} and Groffman, {Peter M.} and Ellen Herbert and Christine Hladik and Fan Li and Litvak, {Marcy E.} and Seth Newsome and John O{\textquoteright}Donnell and Pockman, {William T.} and John Schalles and Young, {Donald R.}",
note = "Funding Information: For the Luquillo example, Grizelle Gonz?lez was supported by Grant DEB?1831952 from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) to the Institute?for Tropical Ecosystem Studies, University of Puerto Rico, and to the International Institute of Tropical Forestry (IITF) USDA Forest Service, as part of the Luquillo Long Term Ecological Research Program. The U.S. Forest Service (Department of Agriculture) Research Unit, the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (EAR-1331841), and the University of Puerto Rico gave additional support. We thank Azad Henareh Khalyani for kindly providing us with Fig.?6. Funding for the work at Sevilleta was provided by grants from NSF to the University of New Mexico for Long-term Ecological Research and NSF EAGER #1748133 and DOE Office of Science TES, SC DE-SC0008088. We thank all SEV research scientists and the SEV LTER field crew. Work at the Virginia Coast Reserve was supported by the National Science Foundation, most recently through grants DEB-0621014 and DEB-1237733. The Konza Prairie LTER example was supported by NSF grant DEB-1440484 and work at the Georgia Coast site was supported by NSF grant OCE-1237140. Funding Information: For the Luquillo example, Grizelle Gonz{\'a}lez was supported by Grant DEB 1831952 from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) to the Institute for Tropical Ecosystem Studies, University of Puerto Rico, and to the International Institute of Tropical Forestry (IITF) USDA Forest Service, as part of the Luquillo Long Term Ecological Research Program. The U.S. Forest Service (Department of Agriculture) Research Unit, the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (EAR‐1331841), and the University of Puerto Rico gave additional support. We thank Azad Henareh Khalyani for kindly providing us with Fig. 6 . Funding for the work at Sevilleta was provided by grants from NSF to the University of New Mexico for Long‐term Ecological Research and NSF EAGER #1748133 and DOE Office of Science TES, SC DE‐SC0008088. We thank all SEV research scientists and the SEV LTER field crew. Work at the Virginia Coast Reserve was supported by the National Science Foundation, most recently through grants DEB‐0621014 and DEB‐1237733. The Konza Prairie LTER example was supported by NSF grant DEB‐1440484 and work at the Georgia Coast site was supported by NSF grant OCE‐1237140. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors.",
year = "2021",
month = may,
doi = "10.1002/ecs2.3433",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "12",
journal = "Ecosphere",
issn = "2150-8925",
publisher = "Ecological Society of America",
number = "5",
}